One of the most fun things, and dangerous, at the beginning of each season is to predict the outcome of things.
Whatever way you do it you offer yourself up to ridicule, never praise. And some time in the far future you will know the outcome. Have you done decently (good is beyond reach) or made a fool of yourself?
As I do not fear making a fool of myself I now set out to predict the outcome of the group play in the Champions League, all groups! To guess the entire competition is impossible as the draw in the play offs is the most contentional thing in football. I am of that only sure about two things, UEFA will give us horrible refs and we will have to play both Liverpool and Barcelona ahead of the final at Bernabeu.
The one group I will not dwell on is Group D. It will end thus; Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Porto, APOEL Nicosia and why I will return to closer to the competition starts.
Group A. Bayern Munich, Juventus, Bordeaux, Maccabi Haifa (all teams presented after seeding draw)
I feel sorry for Haifa. Israeli football has taken strides the last years and they have not only Benayoun whom I admire but some really good kids playing in Spain (our former Sahar is one of them). But Haifa will not be more than a morsel for the teams in a very tough group. Maybe the toughest. In my eyes it is.
I pick Bayern as the winner of this group. I have not picked Bayern as a winner in Bundesliga, where I picked a real outsider. Bayern have also started Bundesliga quite appallingly bad. But getting Robben means that Bayern probably is the club in the world with the best wingers (and I hear the winger whine?). Robben and Ribery. Robben had an awesome debut this weekend, two goals, and I expect him to find his way around Bundesliga better than any other league he have tried. With a wily fox like van Gaal as manager I think Bayern will do better in the CL than in Bundesliga.
Juventus will be a much better team this year than last. It will not take them the title domestically but they will be better than the Juventus we discarded fairly easily last year. I do pick them second but with major difficulty.
Bordeaux, which we also played last year is also one year better and will challenge Juventus mightily for the second spot. Considering Bayern the team that fare the best against Bayern in their two games, should be second. I think Bayern will give Bordeaux a harder time than they will Juventus. European experience plays a big part in this tip.
Still, I would not be surprised if Bordeaux and Juventus will go on from this group, but on paper Bayern are stronger than both. Especially up front.
Group B. Man U, CSKA Moscow, Besiktas, Wolfsburg.
A much tougher group than most think. Turkish teams are often good in the CL and their more than fanatical home support provides a challenge to anyone. I think Man U and Besiktas will go through, but with major doubts.
Russian football is coming along in leaps and bounds and CSKA, our Zhirkov`s former club is a coming team. I am especially interested in the progress of Dzagoev in that club, but he is not the only CSKA will make life hard for any team coming to Moscow, especially in the later rounds. The Russian Winter have stopped many campaigns before!
Man U are favourites, but they are not the team they were just a year ago. I think they will do better in the league than in Europe this year.
Wolfsburg was the surprise winner of the Bundesliga last year. Despite holding on to their goalscoring team and the much sought after Dzeko they are not as good this year as last. The change of manager, Magath leaving, left the team in the hands of Veh and I have my doubts about that. So I give them the third spot in this tough group.
Group C. Milan, Real Madrid, Marseille, Zürich.
Many claim this group to be the hardest. I do not think so. I think Real Madrid and Marseille fairly easily will go through.
There is much huff and puff in Italy about Milan improving and rejuvenating this year. Honestly, they have a very limited squad and Inter played them off the pitch in the Milan derby this weekend. I do not see them as a team for the play offs.
Zürich is a resilient team that actually might provide some upset results in this group. No famous stars but a good team.
Marseille won La Ligue 1 last year and are just as good this year. It all comes down to how our old Didier Deschamps manage to take over the team and get them going on the strengths they already developed. I think he will. Deschamps did a stellar job with Juventus and was still inexplicable sacked by them, he is a coming manager in my eyes.
Group E. Liverpool, Lyon, Fiorentina, Debreceni
I say Liverpool and Fiorentina, if Mutu are not banned from playing. If he is, Liverpool and Lyon.
Liverpool have the experience to survive this. They have a good team, despite their lousy start in the PL. And maybe Benitez will very soon this season shift focus from the league, that the fans want, to the cups that Benitez is a better master of. I am not sure they will win this group, it depends on how soon Benitez can field his best team instead of patching it up with Lucas Leiva.
Lyon is not as good as before, though Lisandro from Porto have had a huge start. They will fight it out with Fiorentina. Lyon can not be dismissed but I still think Fiorentina will overtake them on enthusiasm.
But it depends on if Fiorentina can keep Mutu playing. He is their main attacker. His cocain troubles and subsequent legal debacle with Chelsea might turn out that the player stops playing football in order not to pay his fines to Chelsea. In Italy they think that will be decided within a week. I think Mutu would be wiser to stop fighting an inevitable another legal defeat and instead concentrating on reaching an agreement with Chelsea about how to pay his huge debt to us. If he does that he can concentrate on football instead of becoming a legal victim. Losing Mutu will give the tip to Lyon instead.
Debreceni got to the Champions League and they will be satisfied with that. It was a feat for them, the first Hungarian team to make it.
Group F. Barcelona, Internazionale, Kiev, Rubin
A much tougher group than people believe. But still there for the taking by Barcelona and Inter. They just have the quality while Kiev and Rubin in any other group might have been surprises. Still Barca and Inter will have to fight it out with this team and if they underestimate them, well then they are stupid.
Rubin Kazan was surprise Russian champions and that proves that they do have quality. Russian teams however lack international experience and that will show. Dynamo Kiev and our former Sheva does not lack experience but they will not beat Barcelona or Inter if they are not underestimated.
Barcelona and Inter. The animosity between these two clubs have grown mightily this Summer. I will pick Barcelona as the better, but I will not be surprised if they both take their own home games. One thing I am sure of is that Samuel Eto`o has a big bone to pick with Barcelona about how he was treated I am not at all as sure that Zlatan Ibrahimovic will grow to be the world class player the Swedish kids see him as. He has a lot, to say the least, to prove in big games and he is not the goalscorer Eto`o is. But then Barca has Messi, Iniesta, Henry and Xavi and they are all great players.
Group G. Sevilla, Rangers, Stuttgart. Unirea Urziceni
Without doubt the hardest group to predict. Any combination really can go through. I see that Unirea is already being doomed for last place, I would not be that sure.
I was not as impressed by Sevilla last year. They do not have a great team as I see it and I doubt they will place as high in La Liga this year. Kanouté has been good to them, but is getting up there and has never proven himself internationally.
Rangers are debtridden and in a bad state as a club, but I still think they are the best Scottish team this year too. Also they are our Scottish brother club.
Stuttgart lost Gomez in a big money move and have done some interesting transfers, but will that be enough
Unirea is managed as you know of our former RB Dan Petrescu. They lack experience and that is the reason why I still place them last in this group. But they also have good enough footballers to surprise all of the other teams.
I can not really predict this group, so I will say with my heart; Rangers and Stuttgart. But expect to be surprised.
Group H. Arsenal, Alkmaar, Olympiakos, Standard Liege.
This looks like the dream draw for Arsenal and if they do no go through it will be a big surprise. Arsenal is a very good cup team until the pressure (read opponents) get too tough and I doubt these teams are. Next to Arsenal Olympiakos is the most experienced team and I pick them as second in this group on experience alone.
Alkmaar are building an interesting team that will be good enough for Holland, but will lack in tough European competition. Standard Liege is with Apoel, Haifa and Debrecini the weakest teams in the competition.
What is your take? Maybe merlin will make another competition out of this.
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