Afternoon all.
Understanding the squad limitations is something I have left for those more analytically/Statto-minded than I to get on with. But when I heard RdM mention his “25 man squad” in the press conference after last night`s Seattle win, I thought I`d investigate. That doesn`t sound very many, does it?
I`ve looked into it. Basically – like Katie Holmes & Tom Cruise on Facebook: it`s complicated.
The rules state that we have to name eight homegrown players, and no more than seventeen non-homegrown players. We are allowed to name as many under 21s as we want.
So where does this put us? Working on the basis of Oscar and Cesar signing as discussed, plus the following exclusions:
Lalkovic – loan
Delac – loan.
Kalas – loan
Bruma – loan
Van Aanholt – loan
Davila – loan
Pirez – loan
Courtois – loan
Ince – loan
Walker – loan
Gordon – likely sale
C Clifford – likely sale
B Clifford – likely sale
Taylor – released
Mitrovic – released
Our squad looks a little like this:
Keeper: Cech, Blackman, Hilario, Turnbull
Right Back: Ivanovic, Azpilicueta, Ferreira, Kane
Centre Back: Terry, Cahill, Luiz, Hutchison, Chalobah
Left Back: Cole, Bertrand
Defensive midfielder: Mikel, Romeu, Essien,
Central midfielder: Lampard, McEachran, Benayoun, Meireilles
Attacking midfielder: Mata, Piazon, Oscar
Right Winger: Kakuta, Ramires,
Left Winger: Marin, De Bruyne, Hazard, Malouda
Striker: Torres, Sturridge, Lukaku,
I make that eighteen non-homegrown players, so before we sign anyone else, we have to dispose of one from the list above. Assume the at-risk group would consist of Malouda, Meireilles, Benayoun, Essien, Kakuta, Ferreira and Hilario. So one from that group HAVE to go.
The homegrown contingent looks sorted – we have all nine. If either McEachran goes out on loan, or Sturridge is sold, we`re ok but if both happens then we`d have to get one more homegrown player in.
Lukaku, Piazon, Oscar, Romeu, Chalobah, Kane and Blackman all merit U21 status so do not count toward the 25 man total.
So, I know the question on everybody`s lips is – what does this mean for the transfers we`ve got going on?
Victor Moses: Would get a U21 place so would not need to be counted toward the full 25 man total.
Edinson Cavani: We`d need to sell another non-homegrown player on top of the one that has to go already. Likelihood is that he would be a replacement for Danny Sturridge in the squad as doubtful we`d retain both, so if that happened we`d need to bring in another homegrown player as well – so effectively need to replace him with two players.
Willian: We`d need to sell another non-homegrown player on top of the one that has to go already.
Theo Walcott: Would come in on a homegrown ticket so would not displace anyone.
Andre Schurrle: We`d need to sell another non-homegrown player on top of the one that has to go already.
Luca Modric: We`d need to sell another non-homegrown player on top of the one that has to go already.
Hulk: We`d need to sell another non-homegrown player on top of the one that has to go already.
So what conclusions can we glean from this tangled mass?
Well, it is now very clear why the club want Victor Moses. The likelihood is that we`ll be seeing Kevin de Bruyne head out on loan to free up one non-homegrown spot and then dispensing with the services of at least two of Malouda, Meireilles, Benayoun, Essien, Kakuta, Ferreira and Hilario and given the amount of midfielders and his U21/homegrown status, it seems unlikely, to me anyway, that Josh McEachran will be going out on loan this season. Seems common sense to me.
My belief is that departure-wise we`ll be lining up at the end of the transfer window a bit like this:
Keeper: Cech, Blackman, Hilario, Turnbull
Right Back: Ivanovic, Azpilicueta, Ferreira, Kane
Centre Back: Terry, Cahill, Luiz, Hutchison, Chalobah
Left Back: Cole, Bertrand
Defensive midfielder: Mikel, Romeu, Essien,
Central midfielder: Lampard, McEachran, Meireilles
Attacking midfielder: Mata, Piazon, Oscar
Right Winger: Ramires, Moses
Left Winger: Marin, De Bruyne, Hazard,
Striker: Torres, Sturridge, Lukaku,
15 non home grown
8 home grown
9 U21s
That looks very convincing to me.
We have two squad spaces available by that – but where do we need to strengthen? There`s nowhere there that leaps out. Cavani in at the front would be cool but Sturridge wouldn`t stay so it has homegrown implications. There is also the effect on Torres’ fragile confidence to consider if we bring in someone who – lets be honest – would at the very least be a 50/50 choice up front even for an in-form Torres. An off-form Torres? Hmmm.
We`re fine defensively. We`re absolutely fine down the left and in the middle. You could perhaps make a case for a young class right winger – Walcott is homegrown so he`d work, but would you want him? I`m warming to the idea. You can sort of see why that might work from the club’s point of view.
I think what I’m getting at is the implications of all the reported bids we’ve been making – we clearly cant afford them all, financially or in squad terms.
No matter how much money you throw at the squad there are always implications to consider. I have to say, even if we don’t bring in anyone else after Oscar and Cesar, I think we’re looking pretty good. I am also massively coming around to the Moses idea.
Feel free to discuss in the threads below.
CAREFREE.
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